Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Phat Phighting with PharmaGossip

PharmaGossip has an interesting poll regarding the winner of the weight loss wars one year from now. The contestants are 1.Accomplia/Zimulti 2. Alli 3. Xenical 4. Slentrol (woof) 5. Crack

Currently Crack and Alli are winning. Pharmalyst has voted for Alli. Please cast your votes here if you haven't already. Pharmalyst's rationale for pulling the lever for Alli is as follows:

1. Accomplia/Zimulti - May not be approved in the US. Even if it is approved, there is enough concern regarding safety. Plaintiff lawyers are another force to be reckoned with here (see how Lilly is complaining about lawyer ads here).

2. Alli - Prior to fen-phen's withdrawal, it was one of the fastest drug launches...on track to generate $1b (see here). Granted Alli has worse (superficially!) side effects....however GSK will provide good DTC messaging on how these can be mitigated. If GSK's campaign is effective anyone (ranging from those needing to lose 5 pounds to those needing to lose 50) may be tempted to try Alli.

3. Xenical - Too strong a dose...and so side effects much worse than Alli. Only those really really in need will try. Past performance is best predictor of future results.

4. Slentrol - Woof! Barc! - Pfizer claims that 17 million dogs in the US have "excess baggage" (Hat Tip to Pharmalot for the phrase). Even if 0.5 million owners try this at around $300 a year, the numbers may not be enough to catch up with Alli.

PS: Congratulations to PharmaGossip and Pharmalot for being named the Top 50 business blogs by the Times of the UK.

PPS: As Pharmalyst was posting this, Pharmalot just reported that the FDA panel has rejected Zimulti.

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