The wonderful Clin Psych blog recently blogged about Pharmalyst's previous post re Lilly's Prozac for dogs. Clin Psych considered my estimates of $270m for annual US sales to be a bit over the top. I agree with Clin Psych that $270m does seem to be a bit high...but as I have found out from the Clin Psych blog itself - never underestimate the power of industry to push anti-psychotics, SSRIs etc (at least in humans and may be in dogs too!).
For the record I would like to clarify that $270m wasn't my guesstimate of likely US revenues. I was merely estimating that IF 10% of the target market (of 10m dogs who are afflicted with separation anxiety - per Lilly's press release numbers) takes doggie Prozac, then Lilly stands to make about $270m. I do not know if Lilly will be able to persuade 10% of the potential market to consider Reconcile. I tried to guesstimate how many pet owners would consider such a move by looking at the income distribution of pet owners. However I was was unable to find a free source of such data..some vet association was selling such statistics for an arm and a leg...well out of Pharmalyst's reach.
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You may well be right. I was reacting out of shock rather than reason. If you would have told me 10 years ago than the triumvirate of Risperdal, Seroquel, and Zyprexa would equate to about $12 billion in annual sales, I would have cackled like a witch and thrown a straitjacket on you. So I suppose I should be willing to believe that the sky is always the limit, even if it is for doggie Prozac.
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